Americans vote today in the midterm elections, choosing all 435 members of the House, about a third of the Senate, and 36 governors. Voters decide who controls Congress for the last two years of President Donald Trump's term. But this isn't just a political contest. It will also set the rules of the game for startups and Big Tech. AI rules, data centers, and a tax on billionaires are on the ballot or in the campaign ads. Tech has become one of the biggest spenders in the race: crypto, AI, and betting companies spent more by March than in the entire 2024 cycle.
Elon Musk has given more than $445 million to Republican groups ahead of the vote, making him the biggest known donor of the cycle. Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), the venture capital firm, was the largest corporate donor, at more than $70 million. The people who fund and run tech companies are treating a vote on Congress and governors as a tech story. Where their money went shows what each of them wants from it.
Who paid for what before Tuesday's vote: Elon Musk, VCs, Big Tech, tech billionaires and Anthropic, with what each wants
Tech's Political Money Hit Record Levels, and Most of It Comes From Founders and Investors
Corporations gave a record $737.3 million to super PACs through October 23, according to Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings. Super PACs are political groups that can raise and spend unlimited money as long as they don't give it to candidates directly. Big Tech, AI, and data-center companies accounted for $73.1 million of that total.
The industry's workforce gives the other way. In the second quarter, employees of OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, and xAI gave about $2.02 million to Democrats and $274,000 to Republicans, according to FEC filings. It's the people who own and fund the companies who write the large checks, not the people who build the products.
Each Group of Donors Is Paying for a Different Outcome
Elon Musk: friendly regulators
Musk hasn't said what he wants from the vote, but his largest checks point to regulators. He gave $158 million in September to the Senate Leadership Fund, which sent the same amounts the next day to a group backing Ken Paxton's Texas Senate bid. That money wasn't necessarily Musk's. Paxton, as Texas attorney general, regulates Musk's businesses in the state.
a16z: one federal AI rulebook
Most of a16z's money went to Leading the Future, a super PAC network that wants a single national AI law in place of 50 state ones and has raised more than $140 million. The firm also has a seat inside government: Marc Andreessen joined the Pentagon's Defense Policy Board this summer, while a16z backs defense startups such as Anduril.
Big Tech: favors from the White House
Big Tech's biggest single gifts went to the White House. Apple and Nvidia each gave $25 million toward Trump's ballroom, Google $22 million, Microsoft $10 million, and Amazon and Meta $5 million each. In September, the heads of the largest AI labs and chipmakers signed a one-page voluntary AI accord with Trump in place of new federal rules. In January, the Commerce Department moved Nvidia's H200 chip exports to China to case-by-case review. The pattern points to favors from the executive branch, such as export licenses and light rules, that need no vote in Congress.
Tech billionaires: no billionaire tax in California
On California's own ballot, Sergey Brin has given $102 million to fight Proposition 40, a one-time tax on billionaires, and Eric Schmidt and John Doerr more than $40 million each.
Anthropic and the safety camp: a voice in AI rules
Not every AI company wants the same thing. Anthropic has given at least $40 million to Public First Action, a group that backs AI safety rules. Safety-minded groups have spent about $40 million, against about $36 million from Leading the Future's network. When a draft federal AI bill from Anthropic leaked in October, OpenAI's Chris Lehane answered that no one company "should write the rules alone."
Tuesday's Ballot Decides How Much of This Money Pays Off
If Democrats take the House, as expected, the White House's favors become the subject of hearings. Rep. Greg Casar has said AI CEOs should be called before Congress, and Musk tops the Democrats' list of probe targets. A Democratic House would struggle to pass new AI laws, because Trump can veto them.
The states matter as much. In 21 of the 36 governor races, at least one major-party nominee backs a pause on new data centers. In Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio, Oregon, and Texas, both nominees do. A pause in those states could limit the data centers AI startups rent compute from.
Money doesn't guarantee the result. Only about 5% of the AI groups' direct spending went to contested general-election races. About three in four voters said they were less likely to back a candidate supported by an AI super PAC. The companies are hedging: tech, finance, and crypto firms have hired lobbyists and crisis PR teams ahead of possible Democratic oversight.
Read the midterms as a price check on tech's bets. Founders and VCs paid for one federal rulebook and access to the White House. A Democratic House and data-center pauses in the states are the two outcomes that could undo those bets. For startups, the governor's races may matter more than Congress, because they decide where the next data centers get built.
